Buffalo NY Fishing Report – Observations from 12/22/2025 – 01/04/2026
Here’s our latest Buffalo NY fishing report: Happy New Year, folks! Just checking in – the long stretch of challenging weather continues. I’ve been keeping myself busy with exercise, podcasts, reading, long hikes, and Guyana prep, but admittedly, I’m starting to get a little stir crazy. We finally had a stretch of stability that allowed the water to clear up nicely – clear enough that I was strongly considering getting out with clients on December 27th and 28th. However, things didn’t work out as I’d hoped. No fish porn this time, but something almost as good: an honest look at what 2025 taught me about running this operation (spoiler: my best financial year came with a cost), plus a breakdown of how our local fisheries performed compared to previous years. Keep scrolling for more.
Days on the water: 0
Who we fished with: n/a
Where we fished: n/a
What we caught: n/a
Tactics: n/a
Fishery Update – Current and Forecasted Conditions
As I mentioned in the intro, there was a fleeting opportunity to get out on 12/27 and 12/28. I didn’t end up going out on 12/27 because the night prior, it sleeted for hours into the night, and temps dropped into the low 20s. When I woke up, it was barely 20 degrees and my boat (cover, engine, trim tab actuators, etc.) was completely covered in ice. The roads were also treacherous. However, the water looked excellent. I was super torn about it but decided to cancel knowing it’d be a brutal experience. 12/28 was possible – it warmed up into the mid-30s. However, it was supposed to rain by around 1:00. So, I canceled. It was the right call – rain started pouring down around 12:30 and didn’t let up for hours.
Things have progressively gotten worse since those days. We went through another few days of winds exceeding 60mph and waves over 20’ on Lake Erie. Super cold temps (down into the teens with highs in the low 20s) followed that wind, dropping the temperature of Lake Erie down to 33 degrees. As of this writing, the river is muddy and there’s a steady ice flow from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario. Most boat launches are locked up with ice.
According to the forecast, we have a long period of low winds and above freezing temperatures coming our way starting tomorrow afternoon. That’s supposed to continue into the weekend. The water should clear up markedly in the upcoming days. However, I’m unsure about what will happen with those ice flows. I’m booked Thursday – Sunday. Fingers crossed I’ll be able to get out. If not, that’s it for me until March.
Lower Niagara from the Lewiston launch – mud and ice – taken on 1/4/2026
2025: A Year in Review
My apologies for the lack of fish porn. However, I hope what follows will be of interest. I used this downtime to do something I rarely share publicly – pull back the curtain on how I think about running this business. 2025 was my best financial year yet, but it came with tradeoffs that got me thinking hard about what success actually means. I’ll walk through the metrics I track (and the ones I ignore), why I approach things the way I do, and whether chasing a banner year was worth the cost. If you’ve ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes of a charter operation – or if you’re a fellow guide questioning your own approach – this one’s for you.
I’ll follow up the “business year-in-review” with a look back on how the fishery performed. That section will cover what I saw on Lake Erie, the Upper Niagara, the Lower Niagara, and Lake Ontario. I’m not going to get super specific – I just want to mention how these bodies of water performed compared to previous years.
Business Operations: Keeping It Simple
There are numerous metrics small businesses use to measure success: revenue growth, gross profit margin, net profit margin, cash flow, customer acquisition cost (CAC), and customer lifetime value (LTV). All of these can be relevant to charter captains. However, few of us (myself included) track all of them. I can’t speak for my colleagues, but the main reason I don’t is that I have an unhealthy obsession with numbers – it’s often debilitating. Thankfully, I have an awesome accountant with whom I vibe very well (she might tell you something different, lol).
I also know from dealing with metrics throughout my previous career that they’re gameable and you can cherry-pick them when convenient. So, I try to keep things simple and operate with a few core principles.
My Operating Principles
Here they are in no particular order:
- Work my ass off on every trip – What do I mean? Wake up early, ensure I’m prepared, show up on time, and put forth max effort while on the water. In order to do this, I have to eat and sleep well near DAILY, and I must stay in peak physical condition. In turn, I focus intently on these things – they are a HUGE priority in my daily life.
- Communicate often and with utmost transparency – From the initial conversation to the days leading up to the trip, to time on the water, I make it a priority to keep clients informed about what to expect. The only surprises I want to occur are when Mother Nature rewards us with insane action and/or giant fish.
- Employ high-quality equipment – From boat to tackle and everything in between
- Minimize friction to the maximum extent possible – In other words, take measures to ensure every outing goes smoothly. Mother Nature is complex and uncontrollable, but I can minimize friction by ensuring my truck, boat, engine, trailer, and tackle are maintained and available on demand
My take? All the math and metrics that measure the success of a charter fishing business will trend favorable if I follow those principles. Still, there are some numbers I can’t help but pay attention to.
Volume/Trip Count
This is a common metric that captains and guides use to measure their year. I think it gets used so often because it’s simple – one number to flex your accomplishments. I’ve never been fully comfortable with this metric because it leaves out important details:
- Gift certificate redemption rates vary – All of us sell gift certificates. So, if I sold 30 gift certificates in 2025 but only 15 got redeemed, which number should I count?
- We all charge different rates – Volume alone doesn’t tell the profitability story.
- Half-day vs. full-day trips – Should they count the same?
Still, flawed as it is, I’ll flex and say I did a lot of trips in 2025. I didn’t break a personal record (though I wasn’t far off), but my number was WAY higher than what I’d projected for myself at the start of the year.
Here’s how I actually use the volume/trip count metric: I work backward from my financial needs – including all operating costs, depreciation reserves, investments, and vacation funding – to determine the trip volume I need. Then I mission myself to hit or exceed that target. So, volume isn’t the goal, it’s the means to achieve my net profit objectives. There’s a difference.
Net Profit Margin: The Number That Really Matters to Me
The ease with which you can rest on your laurels when only considering volume is problematic. So, I balance that with how much money was left over after all my expenses for the year. In my opinion, if there’s a number I need to pay attention to, this is the one. Right or wrong (I mean that in the technical sense), here’s what I include in my annual expenses:
- Depreciation – I’m going to have to replace my boat, engine, trailer, and truck at some point – within 5 years of the purchase date on average. To do so, I’ll need to sell what I own now, but I won’t get back what I paid for them. So, I need to save for the estimated difference, adjusted for inflation. Call it what you want, but to me, that’s an expense.
- Operating Costs – Think of everything needed to execute charter trips: gasoline, tackle, maintenance, licenses, insurance, etc. There isn’t much flexibility here, though there’s some. Most of these costs are proportional to trip volume (I burn more gas and tackle the more trips I do). Some aren’t. For example, going back to my principle of employing high-quality equipment – the definition of “high-quality” is subjective. Do I really need to upgrade my rods and reels? Well, yes.
- Investments – This expense is non-negotiable in my mind. A certain percentage of my revenue must go toward saving for a “glide path” retirement. I’ll guide until I physically can’t anymore, but I don’t want to guide at the same volume I am now deep into my 50s. I’ll guide a lot then, but as you know, I have a huge bucket list of places I want to fish. Every year I check a handful off that list (and add one or two). To pick up the pace, I’ll need more vacation days and a way to pay for those vacations. Enter investments.
Looking back at 2025, it was a banner year for me – the best yet – when considering net profit margin. I was able to accomplish this because I sacrificed a couple summer vacation windows and executed more trips instead. In other words, I earned more and spent less than in previous years, mainly due to a lack of vacation time.
The Tradeoff: Was It Worth It? A Quick Aside
Here’s the honest truth: heading into 2025, I blocked zero summer vacation time. My wife had just started managing at a local restaurant, and her schedule wasn’t going to allow for getaways anyway. So, I made a calculated decision – capitalize on the demand and sock away money while I could.
Was it greed? Maybe a little. But it was also the reality of outdoor work. As a charter captain, you fish while the weather permits because you never know when Mother Nature will force you to ground. It’s the same instinct an apex predator has – take advantage of favorable conditions because lean times are always just around the corner. You can’t control the weather, the water conditions, or seasonal patterns. What you can control is whether you’re ready to work when the opportunity presents itself.
That said, I have some regret. I should have taken my daughter on a trip or two, even if my wife couldn’t join us. Those windows don’t stay open forever, and no amount of money in a high-yield savings account replaces that time.
So yes, 2025 was my best financial year. But it came with a cost, and whether that tradeoff was worth it depends entirely on context. In my case, the circumstances made it make sense – but that doesn’t mean I’d make the same choice in 2026 if those circumstances change.
A Quick Shoutout to my Clients/Friends
I have to give a shout out to all the folks who fished with me last year. If it wasn’t for you, I wouldn’t be writing this blog at all. Many of you fished with me in dicey conditions – deciding to go for it when most would’ve stayed inside. Others fished with me numerous times. Still others had such a good time they booked another day and/or referred new clients to me. Thank you!
I want to give a special shout out to the clients that spent the most amount of time on the water with me in 2025. If you’ve been reading my blogs for a while now, you know who these folks are. Thank you very much to the Jarosz Clan (the Whisperer, the Silent Assassin, and Captain America); Ryan and Jack Ferraro; Greg and Tanner Wilson; and Tim Corney (and the boys, of course). You guys were awesome – never a dull moment. Looking forward to many more trips to come.
2025 “Behind the Curtain” Conclusion
So that’s the behind-the-scenes look at how I think about this business – the principles I operate by, the numbers I track (and the ones I don’t), and the tradeoffs that made 2025 my best financial year yet. It was a year of hard work, tough decisions, and gratitude for the clients who made it all possible. But running the business is only half the story. The other half is what actually happened on the water – and 2025 had some clear trends worth discussing. Let’s transition to how the Buffalo Niagara fishery performed.
2025 Fishery Review
Over the course of 2025, I spent hundreds of hours on Lake Erie, the Upper Niagara, the Lower Niagara, and Lake Ontario. Every body of water tells a story, and this year had some clear winners and losers. I’m not going to get super specific with locations or tactics, but I want to give you my take on how each fishery performed compared to previous years and what patterns stood out.
Lake Erie
Remember that walleye bite? It was insane – the best anyone’s ever experienced around here. Sure, walleye fishing on Lake Erie has been incredible for a long time now. However, thanks to numerous and well-timed thermocline flips, Lake Erie gold ended up stacked in shallow water from Buffalo to Barcelona (and beyond) all summer long. I boated hundreds upon hundreds of ‘eyes last year and never got bored. Was it hard work? Sure, but having the confidence that every outing would be a slay-fest took a lot of the mental stress out of it.
It was great having an incredible walleye bite all season. I wish I could say the same about the smallmouth bass bite. In the spring, more days than not, bassing on Lake Erie just didn’t put up the numbers. Don’t get me wrong – I had a handful of incredible days out there this past spring, but just a handful. The fall bite was particularly bad. I usually hammer smallies starting late September. That didn’t happen in 2025. It was so bad I pivoted and went back to walleye fishing. However, once the water temps dropped into the low 40s around early November, it got really good out there and I managed to pull off some awesome days when the weather allowed me to get out. Bottom line: I’m a little concerned about our Lake Erie bass population, but I have to see what ’26 brings before getting too worried.
2025 was the first (and it won’t be the last) year I targeted lake trout on Erie. I owe much gratitude to my friend and colleague Hans Mann who introduced this program to me. It was the most fun I’ve had since my early years of guiding – mainly because it was new and the fish were GIANT. This program will become a September-October staple for me for years to come.
The Upper Niagara
I only fish the Upper Niagara in the spring and fall, and when I do, I almost exclusively target smallmouth bass. Spring of 2025 was good…just good. The numbers of smallies around were high – on one outing, I boated 98 (a personal best) – and you know me, I neither spot-lock nor “soak” zones. So, we pulled that off covering a ton of water (we could’ve broken 100 more than once had I spot locked places). I also had numerous days where we boated over 50. So yeah, numbers were good.
As action-packed as it was, there were a couple of zones that hold fish every year in the spring that just plain didn’t in 2025. Or fish would only be there one day and move on. That had me concerned. However, it forced me to explore a couple of new zones – some of which were highly productive. Size was lackluster too – we picked up a decent number of 5s, but no 6s that I can recall.
I didn’t fish the Upper much in the fall. When I did, it was hit or miss. I had a couple of amazing days but also had to grind it out plenty of times. I’ll say this though – it was better than it was in 2024.
The Lower Niagara
The spring bite on the Lower was poor for all trout – mainly because ice flows limited accessibility. Weirdly, the bar never ended up fishing well in the spring either, which hurt. There was an OK bass bite here and there that ended up getting REALLY good close to the spawn. Overall, it was a tough spring down there.
After the water warmed up and all the algae flushed out of the system, the summer walleye bite ended up being awesome on the Lower and the Lake Ontario Bar…until it turned sour around August. Also, all summer long, there wasn’t much of a bass bite down there. Overall, the Lower had its moments for most of the summer but was a grind in general compared to recent years.
Fall chaos unfolded in typical fashion on the Lower in ’25. Salmon numbers were…well…good for current times, but still grindy. The bass bite got pretty good toward the end of October and early November but was still subpar compared to previous years. Walleye numbers and size were awesome – I boated at least a dozen fish over 10 pounds down there. The trout bite was good, but boat traffic was particularly insane. Steelhead numbers were better than I’ve seen in a couple of years. The bar fished really well when the weather allowed us to get out there. It’s tough to provide a complete assessment though – the season was cut short due to shit weather starting the night before Thanksgiving.
Lake Ontario
I didn’t spend much time out there this past year. In the spring – late April and early May – we had a stretch of banner days for king salmon and trout. However, big north and east winds messed that up quickly, leaving only cohos in their wake for close to a month. So, it’s tough to provide a good assessment of what I saw out there due to limited contact.
Overall, 2025 was a year of contrasts
Lake Erie’s walleye bite was historic, and the lake trout program was a revelation that reignited my love for something new. But the smallmouth bass fishing left me scratching my head across multiple fisheries. The Upper Niagara delivered solid spring numbers but lacked the size and consistency of years past. The Lower Niagara had stretches of brilliance – especially that summer walleye bite and fall chaos – but required more work than recent seasons. Lake Ontario? I didn’t spend enough time out there to say much. If I had to pick a theme for the year, the classic “adapt or die” slogan comes to mind. What I did in previous years didn’t always work, and success came by being ready and willing to adjust as required. Nothing revelatory – but something to keep in mind for years to come.
Wrapping Up 2025
So, there it is – 2025 from both sides of the equation. A banner year financially, but one that required sacrifices. A fishery that delivered historic walleye action but left me questioning the bass population. It was a year of adaptation, hard work, and honest reflection about what success really means. As I head into 2026, I’m thinking carefully about how to balance the business goals with the bucket list, the grind with the adventure, and the need to capitalize on opportunity with the reality that time with my family won’t wait. Stay tuned for the rest of 2026 – I’ve got some plans brewing, starting with Guyana in a few weeks. Until then, tight lines and here’s hoping Mother Nature gives us a break soon.